Week 15 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen

[carlitosway]

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Got another winning week last week, putting together a 4-3 record. After two weeks of 11-6, hopefully, I can finally say that the worst (month of November) is officially behind me. This past weekend in the NFL proved how tough the league can be on bettors. On Sunday, I was totally aggravated by the Jets’ loss at Miami, although hopefully, a lot of you tailing me caught the final line of +6.5 on Sunday like I did. I then proceeded to catch a nice break on Monday night with the Bengals scoring their final points in TD format, not a field goal as it seemed to be heading towards. If you were on the wrong end of either of those games, I feel your pain. I had a lot go wrong last month. With that said, we move on to a full NFL Week 15 schedule with a 59-62-2 ATS (48.8%) record. After pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have these games in mind for NFL Week 15 best bets:

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers​

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
As a football bettor, I like to look at recent offensive and defensive performances in evaluating why teams are favored or not and whether or not that line could be misleading. The Rams are fairly hot lately, going 6-2 in their last eight games while scoring 25.5 PPG and being held to 17 points or fewer just once in that span. That in itself makes them a live underdog. On the other hand, San Francisco comes off a huge game versus Chicago but was held to 17 points or fewer in the three games prior. I’m not sure you can count a big offensive outburst versus a struggling team with a new coach in a tough travel environment as being “back.”
Speaking of that big outing last week, did you know that San Francisco’s QB Brock Purdy is 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS in the last seven starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points? Also, head coach Kyle Shanahan is on a 4-4 SU and 0-8 ATS skid when coming off a home win. The trends seem to be much more favorable towards head coach Sean McVay’s team here, as the Rams are 14-5 SU and 15-3 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018 and on a 19-7 SU and 21-5 ATS December run since 2018.
I also find it curious that more of the betting public is on LA for this game. When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. With road teams on a 42-32-3 ATS (56.8%) run on TNF in the last 77 and the Rams boasting a 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS record in the last 12 road rematches, I look for this game to be very competitive.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Give me LA Rams +3 on the road on TNF

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans​

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
I don’t think it’s a big secret that the Texans haven’t exactly clicked lately, as I feel that some key players being in and out of the lineup has had a big impact on their ability to get going in 2024. The situation is shown pretty clearly in their 5-8 ATS record. However, they are still comfortably ahead in the AFC South Division and had last week to recuperate and smooth things out. For Week 15, they take on a team that I believe is pretending to be alive in the playoff hunt. By all rights, the Dolphins should have lost to the Jets last week, yet still proving my point at the time that they hadn’t beaten anyone good recently to consider themselves a viable candidate.
Head coach Mike McDaniel’s team is in a pretty tough spot here, facing a rested team as he is on a 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog, and his QB Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in his last 10 starts versus teams with winning records. This has also been a head-to-head series dominated by teams laying points, as favorites have won the last six SU and ATS in the MIA-HOU series. The NFL world is still waiting for Houston to put together a complete performance at home in 2024. I think this could be the week.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3 points with the Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans​

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
There are many people out there calling the Bengals win on Monday night in Dallas lucky or a bad beat for Cowboys’ backers. I can see that in one sense, but when you consider that the Bengals outgained the Cowboys 433-322, it doesn’t feel as “lucky.” The stats were more indicative of the difference in the capability of the teams. In fact, I would say right now that very few teams in the league can match up with the Bengals on the offensive side of the ball. QB Joe Burrow is red-hot, and his team is desperate. I don’t mind that state when a team can score like this. Therefore, I look at this game in Tennessee as having some mismatch potential, assuming head coach Zac Taylor’s team remains focused on staying in the playoff hunt.
Besides having a franchise record of 72-43 ATS on the road since 2011, Cincinnati is on an incredible 16-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015. They are also on an 8-2 ATS run vs. Tennessee in head-to-head play. Plus, if you recall from my late-season systems article last week, you’d know that road favorites of 3 points or more are 135-117 ATS (53.6%) since 2014 in December/January regular season games. These teams both have pretty bad defenses. I’m just not sure the Titans can even take advantage, having only scored more than 20 points twice this season.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 5 points with the Bengals on the road again

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers​

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Give the Panthers credit; they’ve put together a respectable five-game ATS winning streak, and QB Bryce Young has looked the part of a competent and developing quarterback. However, I know in the NFL that there is a big difference in competing and covering spreads when you’re a disrespected team as there is when you are expected to win. Is Carolina ready to be a winner as a favorite? It has been over two calendar years since they were favored at home, and even worse, it has been well over three-and-a-half seasons since they were favored at home and won. Yes, they have lost the last six games SU and ATS as home chalk.
My biggest concern is that the betting public has bought in, hook, line, and sinker, with 83% of the money at DraftKings backing the hosts in this game. Dallas has been much improved lately, and seems to be getting used to running things with QB Cooper Rush. They have leaned on RB Rico Dowdle and WR CeeDee Lamb more lately, and the results have been positive. As it is, Dallas is 24-8 SU & 22-10 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, and head coach Mike McCarthy boasts a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 games vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more.
Getting back to the Panthers recent hot stretch, there are two nice fade streak systems going to apply for this one: 1) NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-45 SU and 18-40-4 ATS (31%) in game #4 since 2003. 2) NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 60-37 SU but 38-55-4 ATS (40.9%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013. I’m not quite to the point of trusting Carolina to lay points yet.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: I’ll take Dallas as the 3 point underdog with upset potential

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles​

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
How many times can I go back to the well with Pittsburgh before it bites me? I don’t know. How about for as long as it takes oddsmakers to finally show some well-earned respect? This is a battle of 10-3 vs. 11-2, and by the 5.5-point line attached to it, you’d think it was closer to Philly hosting a team like Jacksonville, whom they were favored by 7.5 against just a month ago. The Steelers continue to win and are doing so in all kinds of ways. That makes them very dangerous.
Let’s not forget that Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013, and QB Russell Wilson is 22-14 SU and 26-11 ATS vs. teams with elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2012. I think the betting public might be agreeing with me here as 66% of the handle and 70% of the bets were on Pittsburgh at DK as of Thursday: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022.
Also, in another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). More on QB Wilson, veteran QBs with new teams play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 49-47 SU and 53-40-3 ATS (57%) since 2004, and 66-45-5 ATS (59.5%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
Plus, I showed everyone this last week, but this is a good time to fade the league’s best teams ironically, as since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 41-35 SU and 23-52-1 ATS (30.7%) in December/January regular season games. I wouldn’t be surprised if Philly wins eventually, but I expect Tomlin’s team to remain very competitive.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: I’ll go Pittsburgh +5.5 at Philly

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions​

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
I understand people’s concerns about the Bills and the loss at the Rams last week, but it was a very difficult travel scenario and a sandwich contest between big games on SNF against San Francisco and at Detroit here. This week’s game is a much easier flight travel for the Bills, and perhaps some of the pressure of racing for home-field advantage is now off the table. The Lions still have that pressure in place, and anyone complaining about the Bills allowing 44 points to the Rams last week should also be concerned about the Lions’ defense. That unit gave up 24 points to the Packers in the second half last week and remains incredibly beat up health-wise.
Still, statistically speaking, head coach Dan Campbell’s defense is very strong. However, Buffalo is 19-6 SU and 20-5 ATS vs. elite defenses, allowing <19 PPG since 2018. I mentioned this with Philly, but remember, elite teams tend to struggle in late season, as since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 41-35 SU and 23-52-1 ATS (30.7%) in December/January regular season games.
Also, on another late-season angle, since 2010, NFL teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 61-33 SU and 58-35 ATS (62.4%) in the follow-up December/January regular season game. I have a feeling this game might not be as explosive offensively as the total suggests, in which case, I’ll take the best player on the field to make the key plays late. That being Bills’ QB Josh Allen.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: It’s Buffalo +2.5 for me here

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers​

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
I’m not sure Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is getting enough credit for just how explosive his team’s offense has been in 2024 despite injuries to his top two wide receivers. They have been held to fewer than 20 points just once this entire season and are currently on a stretch in which they are averaging 27.2 PPG in their last 11. Not surprisingly, there are some key trends suggesting Over the total here, as TAMPA BAY is on 25-8 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog, and head coach Todd Bowles is 12-5 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017. This next one isn’t a totals trend, but it suggests the Bucs are an ideal high-scoring live dog type of team on the road, as Tampa Bay’s QB Baker Mayfield is 8-17 SU but 16-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020.
Of course, I wouldn’t just play a total over without considering the other team’s capability of taking part in it as well, and the Chargers, although a big Under team this season, have changed their style of play greatly over the last month and are unleashing QB Justin Herbert like he had become used to under head coach Brandon Staley. In his last nine games, he has attempted about 31 passes per game, almost 9.0 more than he had to start the first four. He will be needed in this one to keep up with Mayfield. With Over the total 7-1 in the last eight games of the TB-LAC series, that’s the way I’ll lean.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 45 in the TB-LAC matchup

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals​

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
There is some valid concern here with the Cardinals, but to be perfectly truthful, they are following some recent patterns that the franchise has undergone recently. Namely, they are good as a big dog and are usually tough against poor teams, but struggle when things are supposed to be very competitive.
Take a look at some of the trends in play for this game against the Patriots: First, Arizona’s QB Kyler Murray is 11-1 SU and ATS in the last 12 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG. Second, Arizona is 39-18 SU and 36-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2012.
Looking at the Patriots’ side of the coin, New England is 14-24-2 ATS (36.8%) as an underdog since 2021. This is a long-distance travel spot for New England as well, perhaps increasing the challenge for rookie QB Drake Maye: The results of late of rookie quarterbacks in later season road games are troubling, Week 10-EOY, they are just 34-99 SU and 56-75-2 ATS (42.7%). The Patriots should be well rested, but they are on a 1-5 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week games as underdogs, and have scored just 15 PPG in their last six post-bye week games overall.
Plus, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-117 SU and 55-91 ATS (37.7%). Similarly, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3-points are just 42-93 SU and 56-80 ATS (41.2%). Arizona isn’t dead yet in the playoff hunt and needs the next two games, including next week at Panthers, to make a push.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Arizona to win and cover the -6 on Sunday

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks​

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
On the surface, it would seem that a 9-4 team playing as a road favorite against an 8-5 host would have all the making of a public trap game with a very live home dog. In looking beneath the source however, I don’t think these teams are remotely similar as the records might indicate. The Packers’ four losses have come against teams that have lost a combined six games, and the combined loss margin is 20 points. On the other hand, Seattle hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record right now since the opener over Denver, and to be perfectly fair, the Broncos then were just a shell of the team they are now.
Furthermore, the Seahawks’ last three games against winning teams this season were losses of a combined 40 points. In other words, head coach Matt Lafleur’s team is better right now, which is illustrated in my effective strength ratings, which show GB at +7.6 and Seattle at +1.4. Simply two different-level teams and paying 2.5 points for it doesn’t seem like a lot. Plus, Green Bay is on a 6-0-1 ATS run versus Seattle in head-to-head play.
The Packers, of course, should be well rested, and besides that motivating factor, come off a tough 3-point loss at Detroit, which leads them into this late-season betting angle: Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 74-49 ATS (60.2%) in the follow-up game. I don’t think it will be a cakewalk, but Green Bay comes out of Seattle with a win.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Green Bay -2.5 at Seattle on SNF

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings​

Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET
This particular Monday night game had a ton of solid information on it to suggest there were reasons for backing both teams. Now, the eye test of recency would suggest that there is no reason to back the Bears here, particularly after watching them flounder last week in San Francisco. That was an entirely different spot, however, and I would instead point back to the three games prior in which they were very competitive against division rivals, going 2-0-1 ATS. It’s a big turn from what we had become used to from the franchise.
There also continues to be an amazing trend for rookie QBs on MNF: Rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of non-Sunday games lately, going 19-19 SU and 25-11-2 ATS (69.4%) in their last 38 such tries. Moreover, they are 20-5-1 ATS (80%) in their last 26 Monday Night contests. On the Minnesota side, the Vikings are 20-11 SU but only 9-22 ATS in the last 31 games as home favorites, and QB Sam Darnold is 6-11 SU and 3-13-1 ATS in the last 17 starts vs. teams with losing records.
Looking more at the aspect of the rivalry providing motivation for the Bears, home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 15-15 SU and 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) in their last 30 tries. NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football after losing at least their last five games outright have gone 6-12 SU but 14-4 ATS (77.8%) in their last 18 late-season tries. As I said, there was a lot to digest on this game, including a streak system stating that NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-76 SU but 59-30 ATS (66.3%) as underdogs of 5.5-points or more since 2006. If all that weren’t enough, Underdogs are 5-1-1 in the last seven of the CHI-MIN series at Minnesota.
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: I’m expecting Chicago +6.5 to be very competitive

Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders​

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Now, I’m not hinting that I think that the Falcons should go ahead and move on to backup QB Michael Penix over Kirk Cousins, just that I feel that the Falcons’ desperation will call for a more focused desperate effort on Monday. Kind of like last week with the Bengals and Cowboys. This game has many similarities and in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-27 SU but 15-37-2 ATS (28.8%) in the last 54.
Speaking of Cousins, he is 18-13 SU and 20-9 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015, as well as 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games as a road favorite. Typically, veteran QBs with new teams play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 49-47 SU and 53-40-3 ATS (57%) since 2004.
As I indicated earlier, head coach Raheem Morris’ team is desperate at this point, but there is still plenty of hope, with at least three very winnable games remaining in their final four contests. Plus, NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 28-17-2 ATS (62.2%) in their last 47 games versus non-conference foes. Focusing instead on the current losing skid of the Raiders, in NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3-points are just 42-93 SU and 56-80 ATS (41.2%).
Week 15 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Atlanta -4 in a similar MNF spot to Cincy last week